Is Dream11’s fantasy gaming model fair or is there room for AI manipulation?

A lot of people are drawn to fantasy cricket and sports platforms like Dream11, My11Circle, Howzat, and others, hoping to make quick money.  Top prizes in some contests can reach crores of rupees, tempting even those with only a basic understanding of the game to try their luck. In November 2024, a hotel worker in Uttar Pradesh became a crorepati overnight after winning the top prize on Dream11.  Such success stories make these platforms more credible as well as irresistible for many.

But of course, not everyone’s a winner on such fantasy sports platforms. Is it because they are not good at predicting and creating a winning team? Or could it be that their the so-called skill is overshadowed by something else altogether further reducing their odds of winning?

As fantasy gaming increasingly integrates AI and algorithms, this is the issue some users and analysts have raised: Is the fantasy gaming model of platforms such as Dream11 truly fair, or is there a possibility of backend manipulation that remains invisible to users? How do players know the process is clean? 

Entrackr conducted an in-depth analysis of Dream11’s users complaints, multiple app reviews, and industry insights from AI experts, gaming analysts, and independent researchers, all of which raise concerns about Dream11’s operational transparency. As the largest player by a distance in the game, that’s not ideal for Dream11.

A recurring allegation among users is the presence of bot-generated teams, particularly in Guaranteed Contests, where some users have questioned how Dream11 fills vacant slots when contests do not receive enough real entries and whether there is an insertion of non-human participants in the contest, and which could impact the fairness of the competition.

While there is no definitive proof of manipulation, the lack of independent verification mechanisms makes it impossible for users to determine whether all teams are legitimate participants or some are system-generated entries designed to manipulate the winning.

Dream11 provides a complete list of teams participating in any contest after the match starts. However, users have no way to verify whether these teams are real or bot-generated.

While there is no direct evidence proving any unethical practices by Dream11, the  concerns from user complaints, tech experts, and gaming analysts too beg the question- Given the lack of independent verification mechanisms, how do we know if Dream11 contests are completely fair?

And then there is the small matter of cost breakups and profits at gaming firms. Gross margins of over 60% in some cases certainly indicate that ‘the house always wins’ is more an iron rule of business than a desirable outcome for these firms.

Possibility of bot teams: Is the competition real?

Several users on consumer complaint forums have raised concerns about contests filling up too quickly in the last moments before they close, leading to speculation about whether Dream11 is automatically generating bot teams to ensure that certain contests appear full.

As per research, one user named AnkushT06 from Mumbai lodged a complaint on online platform called Consumercomplaints.in alleging about adding of bots team during an IPL contest. Anyone can find similar online detailed complaints from multiple users about the use of bots. However, Entrackr has not independently verified these claims.

Guaranteed contests: Who fills the empty spots?

One of the key attractions of Dream11 is its Guaranteed Contest feature, which ensures that the full prize pool is paid out even if the contest does not receive enough entries. This raises an important question: If fewer users participate, who fills the remaining spots?

In a contest with 100 slots, if only 60 users enter, does  Dream11 ensure the promised winnings are paid? Some users suspect that bot teams could be inserted to fill these contests, worsening the odds of the actual players with the extra bot teams. It is not impossible that these bot entries could help keep the winnings within its system.

Another related complaint reviewed by Entrackr, where some users highlighted the patterns of last-minute contest fills, raises the same question: Are all teams in a contest real, or is the system inserting bot teams in a way that users cannot detect?

To gain deeper insights into the potential role of advanced AI in fantasy gaming, Entrackr spoke to the founder of a leading AI company, who highlighted that without complete access to a platform’s source code, it is impossible to determine whether backend manipulations exist in any system. However, with the advancements in AI, it is certainly possible to optimize algorithms in ways that maximize earnings using sophisticated techniques. If such manipulations are implemented, users would have no way of detecting them in real-time, he explained.

To further explore the concerns surrounding AI-driven contest manipulation, Entrackr spoke to an independent gaming analyst, who requested anonymity. He pointed out that since Dream11 has access to all user-created teams before a match starts, it is technically possible for the platform to use AI to generate its own bot teams with the best possible combination. In short, use the collective wisdom of the crowd against the crowd  These AI-driven teams could then consistently rank high, reducing real-user winnings, he explained.

The analyst also flagged concerns about fake winners and ghost accounts, stating that in high-stakes contests, there is no way for users to verify whether real individuals actually win the advertised jackpot. 

For example, if a Rs 1 crore contest is announced, but the winning account is a bot or an insider-controlled account that never withdraws the money, the company could theoretically retain the entire prize without anyone noticing. 

The analyst further explained, "Since users do not have access to the platform’s financial transactions, it is impossible to compare the actual amount collected versus the announced prize pool and actual payouts.”

For now, there is no independent verification mechanism to ensure fair play. With no regulatory audits or third-party oversight there is always a potential risk of manipulation using Advance AI, he also added. While advanced AI is revolutionizing industries, enhancing efficiency, and transforming the internet economy, it also comes with unintended consequences. From deepfake technology manipulating public perception to AI-driven algorithms optimizing profits at the cost of fairness, the ethical challenges are growing. 

In sectors like fantasy gaming, financial markets, and content platforms, AI can be leveraged to manipulate outcomes, influence consumer behavior, and obscure transparency—often without users realizing it. 

“As AI continues to evolve, should there be stricter oversight and regulatory frameworks to ensure it is used ethically and not exploited for hidden gains?” highlights the AI expert quoted above.

Dream11 did not respond to the detailed queries sent last week.

As fantasy gaming platforms like Dream11 continue to grow, there is a pressing need for regulatory oversight to ensure transparency, fairness, and consumer protection.

The government could take several steps to protect users and prevent possible unethical activities which includes mandating independent audits – fantasy sports companies should be required to undergo third-party audits to verify fair play practices, prize money distribution, and contest integrity. There should be stricter KYC and bot-detection measures should be enforced to ensure that all participating teams belong to real users, not AI-generated bots.

India could consider a structured regulatory model similar to the United States, where fantasy sports are exempt from gambling laws but are still subject to strict compliance checks. Given these concerns, it may be beneficial for Dream11 to consider enhancing transparency measures. Implementing independent audits and providing clearer explanations for deductions could help in building greater user trust.

Without transparent regulations, users will have no way to verify if they are competing in a truly fair fantasy gaming environment. As the fantasy sports industry expands, should the Indian government introduce a dedicated regulatory body for online gaming to safeguard public interests? Going by experience with government regulators, perhaps real credibility will come from an independent, self appointed industry regulator that gets a mandatory share of revenues from gaming firms to fund itself and ensure fair practices. With a possible government nominee as well if possible.

Financially, much like mature, dividend paying firms that try to keep their investors happy by offering predictable dividends by way of a targeted share of profits, gaming firms need to offer a targeted share of revenues as winnings perhaps. Either way, in a business where credibility of the platform is both the bare minimum requirement and the gold standard to evaluate it, it is clear that in India, platforms continue to run on the credulity of their users. For Dream11, with revenues around the billion dollar mark, the business of gaming needs to be the business of credibility as well. 

Disclaimer: The information provided is based on publicly available user complaints, expert opinions, and existing legal frameworks. There is no definitive evidence confirming the presence of bot-generated teams or unethical practices on Dream11. Entrackr does not claim that Dream11 engages in such practices but is raising questions based on industry concerns. Dream11 has been legally recognized as a game of skill by the Supreme Court of India.