Ola Electric can achieve EBITDA breakeven by FY27: Goldman Sachs

Ola Electric, the Bengaluru-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, is projected to reach EBITDA breakeven by the fiscal year ending March 2027, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs. 

The company is expected to see its revenue grow at 2.5 times the current rate, with a fivefold increase in vehicle volume over the next three years.

“We expect FY24 to FY30E revenue growth of +40% CAGR (vs FY22 to FY24 of +240%), implying FCF breakeven (ex-subsidies) in FY30E. We expect OLAE to achieve 11.9% / 27% EBITDA margin / ROIC by FY30E vs -19.7% / -32.0% pc in FY24,” said the Goldman Sachs report.

Despite the promising projection, Ola Electric's revenue growth in FY24 and FY21 Q1 has been modest. Its revenue from operations grew only 2.8% to Rs 1,644 crore in Q1 FY25 from Rs 1,598 crore in Q4 FY24. The company, however, managed to control its losses by 16.6% to Rs 347 crore in Q1 FY25. During the last fiscal year (FY24), it reported Rs 5,010 crore revenue and Rs 1,584 core loss.

Goldman Sachs has issued a "buy" rating for Ola Electric, with a 12-month target price of Rs 160 per share, suggesting a potential 50% upside. Currently, Ola Electric shares are trading at Rs 113 per share.

The brokerage firm expects Ola Electric’s revenue to increase by over 40% from FY24 to FY27. In contrast, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, and Hero MotoCorp are projected to grow by 16%, 19%, and 10%, respectively.

As per the report, Ola Electric’s products are approximately 18% cheaper on a running cost basis when compared to its EV peers.

Ola Electric’s market share rose from 21% in FY23 to 35% in FY24, and further to 49% in Q1 FY25, according to Jefferies. However, the share dropped to 39% in July and 32% in August. In August, TVS and Bajaj each held a 19% market share, while Ather Energy had a 12% share.

The competition in the EV sector is expected to intensify as Ola Electric prepares to launch its motorcycle and electric three-wheeler (e-rickshaw) in the coming months. Meanwhile, Ather Energy, which is also gearing up for a public listing, has announced plans to begin manufacturing motorcycles as well.